The Breaking Bad effect is the observed rise in criminal behavior after a serious health shock such as a cancer diagnosis. Peer-reviewed evidence indicates crime risk increases after diagnosis, with the study reporting roughly a 14 percent uptick in offending, affecting both first-time crimes and reoffending. The data suggest two main drivers: financial strain and weaker deterrence when survival odds fall, according to an American Economic Journal: Applied Economics study by Andersen, Colmsjö, Parise, and Peijnenburg.
What is the Breaking Bad effect?
The term refers to a measurable increase in criminal activity following a severe health shock, here a cancer diagnosis. The concept links health, household finances, and criminal behavior through changes in incentives and constraints that occur after a life-altering medical event.
Researchers report a substantial and persistent rise in the likelihood of committing a crime after diagnosis, covering both first offenses and reoffenses (AEJ: Applied Economics).
How does a cancer diagnosis change crime risk?
The study identifies two mechanisms:
- Economic motive: Illness can reduce legal income and raise expenses, which may push some people toward economic crimes such as theft or fraud to compensate for lost earnings.
- Deterrence and survival probability: Criminal law relies on deterrence, the idea that the threat of future punishment discourages crime. When someone expects fewer future years, the perceived cost of being punished later falls, which can make riskier, even non-economic, offenses more attractive in the near term. For background on deterrence, see the National Academies overview of evidence on punishment and behavior (NASEM).
Put simply, the incentives that normally keep people from offending can weaken when time horizons shorten and finances tighten.
How did researchers test the Breaking Bad effect?
The authors used administrative data and a quasi-experimental strategy that exploits “plausibly exogenous” variation in the timing of cancer diagnoses. This helps separate the impact of the health shock from other factors that also influence crime. By comparing individuals before and after diagnosis, and against appropriate controls, they estimate the causal effect of diagnosis on offending behavior.
The design allows them to examine both the onset of criminal behavior among people with no prior record and changes in reoffending among those with a history, capturing the breadth of the effect.
What types of crimes increase after diagnosis?
The study finds increases in both economic and non-economic offenses after a cancer diagnosis. Economic crimes align with the financial-pressure mechanism. Non-economic offenses, which are not directly profit-motivated, are consistent with reduced deterrence when future punishment seems less relevant. While examples of economic crimes include theft and fraud, non-economic categories can include offenses like vandalism or certain assaults; the key point is that the rise is not limited to income-seeking behavior.
“Welfare programs that alleviate the economic repercussions of health shocks are effective at mitigating the ensuing negative externality on society.” (AEJ: Applied Economics abstract)
Can policy reduce this effect?
Yes. The authors find that stronger social supports blunt the crime increase linked to health shocks. Policies that stabilize income and reduce immediate hardship appear to curb the economic-crime channel. Practical levers include:
- Timely income support and sick-pay coverage during treatment
- Job protection and flexible leave to prevent sudden earnings loss
- Debt relief or payment deferrals tied to major health shocks
- Accessible mental health care and palliative support to address stress and risk-taking
These tools target the short-run pressures that amplify offending risk and help preserve the deterrence role of future-oriented plans.
What are the limitations of the evidence?
- Context matters: The magnitude of effects may vary by country, legal system, and social insurance design. Results from one setting may not translate exactly to another.
- Measurement and categories: Administrative definitions of crime types can differ across jurisdictions, which affects how economic versus non-economic offenses are classified.
- Health heterogeneity: Impacts likely depend on cancer type, stage, prognosis, and treatment burden, which shape both finances and perceived future time.
- Most patients do not offend: The findings describe changes in probabilities at the population level. They do not imply that a typical person with cancer will commit a crime.
Even with these caveats, the quasi-experimental approach and population data provide credible evidence that serious health shocks can shift offending behavior through both money and incentives.